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Fucked Twice by 69

January 24, 2010

And no, that’s not as fun as it sounds. In fact, it really highlights the fact that I’m in the middle of a horrendous run-bad. Don’t believe me? Well here are two hands from tonight’s session that will illustrate my point.

Hand 1: A fairly aggressive player raises to $7 from middle position and four players call behind. I look down at 6s-9s in the big blind and make the call.

The flop is about as pretty as I can ask, coming 10-8-3 rainbow and I check. The original raiser bets $20 and action folds back to me. I know I’m drawing thin, but I figure if I hit my card, I can take down a monster pot. I call and bingo, the 7d hits the board. My opponent moves all in for $140 and, to be honest, I’m a little stunned. It’s a big bet and I’m holding the second nuts, but I really can’t put him on J-9 here. My best guess is that he’s on an over-pair or drawing for his own straight, so I make the call.

He tables 10s-10c for a set and promptly hits the case 10 for quads. Ouch!

Hand 2: This is what turned out to be my last hand of the night. Six players, including the small blind, limp into the pot and I look down to find 6-9 off-suit in the big blind. I check my option and flop gin on a board of 5-8-7 rainbow.

The small blind, another aggressive player, leads out for $35 – a massive over-bet of the pot. I’m sure he hit the flop and figure he’s got something like Ace-10 for top-top. Since I’m holding the nuts, I raise to $90, figuring he’ll call, which he does.

The turn brings another 5 and he checks. I don’t love that the board pairs here, but when he checks, I move all in for $175. He tanks before reluctantly making the call. The river brings a 10 and I happily turn over my six-card straight. The villain looks at the board for a moment and says “You have the straight, huh?” before turning over pocket 8s for the turned full house.

Holy fucking hell.

Looking back on these hands now, I might have been able to save some money in Hand #2, but it would have been tough.

In Hand #1, I peeled for the implied odds and got exactly the card I wanted on the turn before putting my money in as a 77% favorite against my opponent’s 10 possible outs. In Hand #2, with my opponent having flopped his set, the odds were still  65%-35% in my favor (according to CardPlayer’s odds calculator) when I put in my raise on the flop. I could have checked the turn when the board paired, but if I don’t put my opponent on a set here (which I obviously didn’t), I have to figure I’m way ahead of anything else he’s possibly holding when he checks the action to me.

As it turned out, I was drawing stone cold dead.

Like I said, I’m running bad. Really fucking bad.

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